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Considering what we have mentioned before and the ecosystem actors present in all Predicition Markets we can arrive to the conclusion that we might Initially face a tridimensional chicken and the egg problem:
  • Traders can’t trade if there is not enough liquidity.
  • In the absence of subsidies or a significant trading volume allowing them to profit from the spread, providing liquidity is not profitable due to the impermanent loss (see Lack of Liquidity section).
  • Information seekers cannot get accurate estimates as markets are only efficient if there are a significant amount of actors participating. They can’t convince other actors either if the markets are not widely used.
Therefore we need to find a way to initially solve the chicken and the egg problem…