Why previous prediction markets failed
- Prediction Markets versus Alternative Methods: Empirical Tests of Accuracy and Acceptability — Andreas Graefe, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (2009)
- Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking” — Judgment and Decision Making
- Betteridge’s law of headlines — Wikipedia
- Designing Real Terrorism Futures — Robin Hanson, Public Choice (2006)
- Policy Analysis Market Archive — Robin Hanson
- How betting platform PredictIt’s legal struggle could hamper regulators and hurt regulated firms — Connor Raso, Brookings Institution (2023)
- CFTC Fines Crypto Betting Service Polymarket $1.4M for Unregistered Swaps — CoinDesk (2022)
Seer Solution
- Retroactive Public Goods Funding — Optimism (2021)
- Liberal Radicalism: A Flexible Design For Philanthropic Matching Funds — Vitalik Buterin, Zoë Hitzig & E. Glen Weyl (SSRN, 2018)
- Sismo
- Proof of Humanity
- Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs? — Robin Hanson
- Thread by Clément Lesaege (@clesaege) — X
- Balaji Srinivasan bets $1M on Bitcoin hitting $1M within 90 days due to US hyperinflation — Decrypt (2023)
- Curve Finance
- Balancer
- Did SushiSwap Really “Steal” Liquidity from UniSwap? — Flipside Crypto
- Conditional Tokens Explorer — Gnosis
- 1inch Network
- ParaSwap
- CoW Protocol
- Kleros
- Vickrey auction — Wikipedia
- Commitment scheme — Wikipedia
Applications
Further reading
Not cited in the text, but relevant background:- reality.eth — the crowd-sourced oracle Seer builds on
- An Introduction to Artificial Prediction Markets for Classification — Adrian Barbu & Nathan Lay, Journal of Machine Learning Research (2012)
- Online Prediction via Continuous Artificial Prediction Markets — Jahedpari et al., IEEE Intelligent Systems (2017)
- Metaculus
- Quantified Intuitions