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We could also have markets on individual cases. A patient could get the opinion of multiple professionals on the treatment to follow and then make a market on his own survival and quality of life depending on the treatment taken and then use this as an insight for his choice of treatment. Note that there are two elements which would need to be cared for:
  • Anonymization of the patient:
    • One solution is to anonymize the patient data, but it still leaks some information.
    • The other is never to publish the patient data, in this case, only the medical professionals would be able to use those markets.
  • Avoiding bad incentives: Obviously, betting on someone’s survival could also be betting on his death (like an assassination market). In order to prevent those bad incentives, the market should revert (this can be done through “undetermined” outcome tokens) if the patient suffers death or serious injuries as a result of criminal actions.
We initially envision this to be used for life threatening and lifelong conditions (due to the cost of subsidising liquidity) but when markets become more efficients, this could also be used for milder conditions (such as dental treatments).