Before looking at reasons why previous prediction markets failed, we’ll look at some common criticisms of prediction markets that we believe to be mistaken.
A method other than a prediction market produces the best predictions
An article shows a method over performing prediction market
It's not ethical
Regulatory Attacks
Lack of Liquidity
{"docsConfig":{"theme":"mint","$schema":"https://mintlify.com/docs.json","name":"Seer","description":"Seer is a prediction market platform built on Reality.eth and the Conditional Tokens Framework.","colors":{"primary":"#9747FF","light":"#B38FFF","dark":"#59097E"},"logo":{"light":"https://mintcdn.com/seer-pm/gMI9NURNNgZ-teA3/logo/light.svg?fit=max\u0026auto=format\u0026n=gMI9NURNNgZ-teA3\u0026q=85\u0026s=06e82ae40c2ef8366178049ff871c578","dark":"https://mintcdn.com/seer-pm/gMI9NURNNgZ-teA3/logo/dark.svg?fit=max\u0026auto=format\u0026n=gMI9NURNNgZ-teA3\u0026q=85\u0026s=44a96a9ebd465daf3bd9156fc0f54b8a","href":"/"},"favicon":"https://mintcdn.com/seer-pm/gMI9NURNNgZ-teA3/favicon.png?fit=max\u0026auto=format\u0026n=gMI9NURNNgZ-teA3\u0026q=85\u0026s=36d45f371c71aee64b60c03a9df9a5df","navbar":{"links":[{"href":"https://github.com/seer-pm/demo","label":"GitHub"}],"primary":{"type":"button","label":"Open app","href":"https://seer.pm"}},"footer":{"socials":{"github":"https://github.com/seer-pm/demo","website":"https://seer.pm"}},"styling":{"latex":true},"navigation":{"pages":[]}},"deployment":{"deploymentMetadataValue":{"subdomain":"seer-pm","hasAudioNarration":false,"actualSubdomain":"seer-pm","customDomains":["docs.seer.pm"],"gitSource":{"type":"github","owner":"xyzseer","repo":"demo","deployBranch":"main","contentDirectory":"docs","isPrivate":false,"mountPath":"","label":""},"chroma":{"latestBuiltDeploymentHistoryId":"6ab57961d9c260d76514fb2c","collectionId":"05d0ea5e-e77f-426c-af44-10857deeda66","liveDeploymentHistoryId":"6ab57961d9c260d76514fb2c","schemaVersion":"v3"},"entitlements":{"AI_CHAT":{"status":"DISABLED"}},"buildId":"6ab57961d9c260d76514fb2c","clientVersion":"0.0.3894","searchFilterCounts":[{"language":"default","tag":"Developers","count":55},{"language":"default","tag":"Contracts","count":32},{"language":"default","tag":"Whitepaper","count":26},{"language":"default","tag":"Documentation","count":21},{"language":"default","tag":"Interaction","count":18},{"language":"default","tag":"Using the app","count":12},{"language":"default","tag":"Seer Solution","count":12},{"language":"default","tag":"Getting started","count":8},{"language":"default","tag":"Core","count":8},{"language":"default","tag":"Guides","count":8}]},"assistantConfig":{"enableAskAiButton":false,"enableStarterQuestions":false,"enableContextualStarterQuestions":false,"enableAskAiSearchBar":true},"hasChatPermissions":false,"hasWebMcpPermissions":false,"toggles":[{"name":"kill-isr","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"agent-mintlify-slack","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"editor-v7-file-tree","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"agent-integrations-settings","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"automations-pr-grouping","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"custom-prefix","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"analytics-v7","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"user-flows-analytics","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"no-publish-flow","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"workos-onboarding","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"llms-txt-v2","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"pause-universal-search-reconcile","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"snapshot-serving-live","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"stripTemperatureMiddleware","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"per-site-search-delta","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"support-platform-pylon-zendesk","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"editor-branches-v2-autocommit","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"editor-branches-v2","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"snapshot-serving","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"instant-rollback","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"granular-notifications-server","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"granular-notifications","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"editor-private-page-search","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"automations-fable","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"fixed-ai-action-pricing","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"automation-resolve-merge-conflict","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"scoped-publishing","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"mintql","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"page-level-analytics","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"teamspace","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"editor-version-history-v2","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"vite-origin","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"editor-nav-generations","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"workspace-projects","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"assistant-v5","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"byok-sep-25","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"revalidation-jwt","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"editor-agent-model-picker","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"client-snapshot-docs-config","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false},{"name":"hobby-abuse-scan","enabled":true,"variant":{"name":"disabled","enabled":false,"feature_enabled":true},"impressionData":false}],"isAtlas":false,"googleFontsInlined":false},"customCss":[],"page":{"pagePath":"whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed","slug":"/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed","pageMetadata":{"title":"Why did previous prediction markets fail?","description":null,"href":"/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed"},"pageType":"default","mdx":{"mdxSource":{"compiledSource":"\"use strict\";const{Fragment:_Fragment,jsx:_jsx,jsxs:_jsxs}=arguments[0];const{useMDXComponents:_provideComponents}=arguments[0];function _createMdxContent(props){const _components={p:`p`,..._provideComponents(),...props.components},{Card,CardGroup,Heading}=_components;if(!Card)_missingMdxReference(`Card`,true);if(!CardGroup)_missingMdxReference(`CardGroup`,true);if(!Heading)_missingMdxReference(`Heading`,true);return _jsxs(_Fragment,{children:[_jsx(Heading,{level:`3`,id:`wrong-reasons`,children:`Wrong reasons`}),`\n`,_jsx(_components.p,{children:`Before looking at reasons why previous prediction markets failed, we’ll look at some common criticisms of prediction markets that we believe to be mistaken.`}),`\n`,_jsxs(CardGroup,{cols:2,children:[_jsx(Card,{title:`A method other than a prediction market produces the best predictions`,href:`/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed/a-method-other-than-a-prediction-market-produces-the-best-predictions`}),_jsx(Card,{title:`An article shows a method over performing prediction market`,href:`/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed/an-article-shows-a-method-over-performing-prediction-market`}),_jsx(Card,{title:`It's not ethical`,href:`/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed/its-not-ethical`}),_jsx(Card,{title:`Regulatory Attacks`,href:`/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed/regulatory-attacks`}),_jsx(Card,{title:`Lack of Liquidity`,href:`/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed/lack-of-liquidity`})]})]})}function MDXContent(props={}){const{wrapper:MDXLayout}={..._provideComponents(),...props.components};return MDXLayout?_jsx(MDXLayout,{...props,children:_jsx(_createMdxContent,{...props})}):_createMdxContent(props)}return{default:MDXContent};function _missingMdxReference(id,component){throw new Error(`Expected `+(component?`component`:`object`)+\" `\"+id+\"` to be defined: you likely forgot to import, pass, or provide it.\")}","frontmatter":{},"scope":{"config":{},"pageMetadata":{"title":"Why did previous prediction markets fail?","description":null,"href":"/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed"}}},"mdxSourceWithNoJs":null},"mdxExtracts":{"tableOfContents":[{"title":"Wrong reasons","slug":"wrong-reasons","depth":3,"children":[]}],"codeExamples":{}},"jsLinks":[],"subdomain":"seer-pm","siteName":"Seer","title":"Why did previous prediction markets fail? - Seer","navMaps":{"firstHrefInVersion":{},"firstHrefInLanguage":{}},"lastModified":"2026-09-24T19:26:33.191Z","originalFileLocation":"whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed.mdx"},"headHtml":"\u003cmeta data-mint-head name=\"application-name\" content=\"Seer\">\u003cmeta data-mint-head name=\"generator\" content=\"Mintlify\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"icon\" type=\"image/png\" sizes=\"192x192\" href=\"/mintlify-assets/_mintlify/favicons/seer-pm/T0tlFsaE78a4PkZf/_generated/favicon/android-chrome-192x192.png\" media=\"(prefers-color-scheme: light)\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"apple-touch-icon\" type=\"image/png\" sizes=\"180x180\" href=\"/mintlify-assets/_mintlify/favicons/seer-pm/T0tlFsaE78a4PkZf/_generated/favicon/apple-touch-icon.png\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"icon\" type=\"image/png\" sizes=\"16x16\" href=\"/mintlify-assets/_mintlify/favicons/seer-pm/T0tlFsaE78a4PkZf/_generated/favicon/favicon-16x16.png\" media=\"(prefers-color-scheme: light)\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"icon\" type=\"image/png\" sizes=\"32x32\" href=\"/mintlify-assets/_mintlify/favicons/seer-pm/T0tlFsaE78a4PkZf/_generated/favicon/favicon-32x32.png\" media=\"(prefers-color-scheme: light)\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"shortcut icon\" type=\"image/x-icon\" href=\"/mintlify-assets/_mintlify/favicons/seer-pm/T0tlFsaE78a4PkZf/_generated/favicon/favicon.ico\" media=\"(prefers-color-scheme: light)\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"icon\" type=\"image/png\" sizes=\"192x192\" href=\"/mintlify-assets/_mintlify/favicons/seer-pm/T0tlFsaE78a4PkZf/_generated/favicon-dark/android-chrome-192x192.png\" media=\"(prefers-color-scheme: dark)\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"icon\" type=\"image/png\" sizes=\"16x16\" href=\"/mintlify-assets/_mintlify/favicons/seer-pm/T0tlFsaE78a4PkZf/_generated/favicon-dark/favicon-16x16.png\" media=\"(prefers-color-scheme: dark)\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"icon\" type=\"image/png\" sizes=\"32x32\" href=\"/mintlify-assets/_mintlify/favicons/seer-pm/T0tlFsaE78a4PkZf/_generated/favicon-dark/favicon-32x32.png\" media=\"(prefers-color-scheme: dark)\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"shortcut icon\" type=\"image/x-icon\" href=\"/mintlify-assets/_mintlify/favicons/seer-pm/T0tlFsaE78a4PkZf/_generated/favicon-dark/favicon.ico\" media=\"(prefers-color-scheme: dark)\">\u003cmeta data-mint-head property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why did previous prediction markets fail? - Seer\">\u003cmeta data-mint-head property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Seer\">\u003cmeta data-mint-head property=\"og:url\" content=\"https://docs.seer.pm/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed\">\u003cmeta data-mint-head property=\"og:type\" content=\"website\">\u003cmeta data-mint-head name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\">\u003cmeta data-mint-head name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Why did previous prediction markets fail? - Seer\">\u003cmeta data-mint-head name=\"msapplication-config\" content=\"/mintlify-assets/_mintlify/favicons/seer-pm/T0tlFsaE78a4PkZf/_generated/favicon/browserconfig.xml\">\u003cmeta data-mint-head name=\"apple-mobile-web-app-title\" content=\"Seer\">\u003cmeta data-mint-head name=\"msapplication-TileColor\" content=\"#9747FF\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https://docs.seer.pm/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"alternate\" type=\"application/xml\" href=\"/sitemap.xml\">\u003clink data-mint-head rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\" href=\"/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed.md\">\u003cscript data-mint-head type=\"application/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https://schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https://docs.seer.pm/#organization\",\"name\":\"Seer\",\"url\":\"https://docs.seer.pm\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https://mintcdn.com/seer-pm/gMI9NURNNgZ-teA3/logo/light.svg?fit=max\u0026auto=format\u0026n=gMI9NURNNgZ-teA3\u0026q=85\u0026s=06e82ae40c2ef8366178049ff871c578\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https://docs.seer.pm#website\",\"name\":\"Seer\",\"url\":\"https://docs.seer.pm\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https://docs.seer.pm/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https://docs.seer.pm/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed#webpage\",\"url\":\"https://docs.seer.pm/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed\",\"name\":\"Why did previous prediction markets fail?\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-24T19:26:33.191Z\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https://docs.seer.pm#website\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https://docs.seer.pm/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed#breadcrumb\"}},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https://docs.seer.pm/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Seer\",\"item\":\"https://docs.seer.pm\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Why did previous prediction markets fail?\",\"item\":\"https://docs.seer.pm/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed\"}]},{\"@type\":[\"Article\",\"TechArticle\"],\"@id\":\"https://docs.seer.pm/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed#article\",\"headline\":\"Why did previous prediction markets fail?\",\"name\":\"Why did previous prediction markets fail?\",\"url\":\"https://docs.seer.pm/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https://docs.seer.pm/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed#webpage\"},\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-24T19:26:33.191Z\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https://docs.seer.pm/#organization\"},\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https://docs.seer.pm#website\"}}]}\u003c/script>\u003cscript data-mint-head type=\"application/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https://schema.org\",\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"name\":\"Seer\",\"creator\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"Mintlify\",\"url\":\"https://mintlify.com\"}}\u003c/script>","siteName":"Seer","nav":{"global":null,"tabs":[{"tab":"Whitepaper","icon":"scroll","groups":[{"group":"Seer","pages":[{"title":"Introduction to Seer","description":null,"href":""}]},{"group":"Why previous prediction markets failed","root":{"title":"Why did previous prediction markets fail?","href":"/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed"},"pages":[{"title":"A method other than a prediction market produces the best predictions","description":null,"href":"/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed/a-method-other-than-a-prediction-market-produces-the-best-predictions"},{"title":"An article shows a method over performing prediction market","description":null,"href":"/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed/an-article-shows-a-method-over-performing-prediction-market"},{"title":"It's not ethical","description":null,"href":"/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed/its-not-ethical"},{"title":"Regulatory Attacks","description":null,"href":"/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed/regulatory-attacks"},{"title":"Lack of Liquidity","description":null,"href":"/whitepaper/why-prediction-markets-failed/lack-of-liquidity"}]},{"group":"Seer Solution","root":{"title":"Seer Solution","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution"},"pages":[{"title":"Seer DAO","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/seer-dao"},{"title":"Retroactive Public Good Funding","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/retroactive-public-good-funding"},{"title":"Prediction Market Actors","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/prediction-market-actors"},{"title":"The Chicken and the egg problem","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/the-chicken-and-the-egg-problem"},{"title":"Token Incentives","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/token-incentives"},{"title":"Information Seekers","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/information-seekers"},{"title":"Exchange Integration","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/exchange-integration"},{"title":"Liquidity Management","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/liquidity-management"},{"title":"Safe Liquidity Provision","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/safe-liquidity-provision"},{"title":"Practical Implementation = AMM + Auctions","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/practical-implementation-amm-and-auctions"},{"title":"Reasoning","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/reasoning"},{"title":"Capital Efficency","href":"/whitepaper/seer-solution/capital-efficency"}]},{"group":"Applications","root":{"title":"Applications","href":"/whitepaper/applications"},"pages":[{"title":"Political Predictions","href":"/whitepaper/applications/political-predictions"},{"title":"Food and Drugs Market","href":"/whitepaper/applications/food-and-drugs-market"},{"title":"Macro Studies","href":"/whitepaper/applications/macro-studies"},{"title":"Micro Recommendation","href":"/whitepaper/applications/micro-recommendation"},{"title":"Futarchy","href":"/whitepaper/applications/futarchy"},{"title":"AI Markets","href":"/whitepaper/applications/ai-markets"}]},{"group":"Closing","pages":[{"title":"Conclusion","href":"/whitepaper/conclusion"},{"title":"References","href":"/whitepaper/references"}]}]},{"tab":"Documentation","icon":"book-open","pages":[{"title":"Documentation","href":"/documentation/what-is-seer"}]},{"tab":"Developers","icon":"code","pages":[{"title":"Developers","href":"/developers/introduction"}]}]},"title":"Why did previous prediction markets fail? - Seer","buildId":"dpl_8LJVMfxYNq6LJkohTrn2iyWT8umj","deploymentId":"dpl_8LJVMfxYNq6LJkohTrn2iyWT8umj","dynamics":[],"chunks":[]}
